The Policy Studies Forum

Location, Implication, and Ordering

　As mentioned in my essay No. en8 , the policy decision-making of a society has various influences on future generations of the society. Let us consider, for example, the policy decisions made by the Japanese government at the time concerning the Sino-Japanese War that began with the Marco Polo Bridge Incident (also known as the Lugou Bridge Incident) in July 1937, and the Pacific War that began in December 1941 when Pearl Harbor was attacked. The policy decision-making also resulted in a negative legacy for the post-war Japanese generations who had no involvement in the Sino-Japanese or Pacific Wars.
　This is an example of the externality of policy to future generations, like the externality of the measures against global warming that we considered previously, and can be called “intertemporal externality of policy.”
　What is important when comprehensively researching policies is how to define the location, implications, and ordering in identifying societies, cultures, history, social problems, policies, and people in a space-time universe composed of a time axis and a space axis. As a person with Japanese nationality today, how each person defines the location, implications, and orderliness regarding the historical matters of the Sino-Japanese War and the Pacific War may change human activities that try to make the present-day Japan a “better society”. Not all Japanese have enough information about these wars. If the cost is greater than the benefit by weighing the benefits and costs of obtaining additional information, then no further information will be acquired and information will be lacking. This situation is called “rational ignorance” in the literature of public choice that analyzes political processes from an economic point of view.
　Historical experts, governments, schools and the media in Japan and abroad have provided information on the Sino-Japanese War and the Pacific War to people in a rational ignorance situation. However, the information is just the particular information selected from the particular window of the information provider. Based on such information, each person defines the location, implication, and orderliness regarding the Sino-Japanese War and the Pacific War. Location, implications, and orderliness regarding not only war but also the subject of consideration can be defined as follows.
Location makes the matter clear in a categorized category and identifies its positional relationship. Implications give the matter a narrative meaning from a particular perspective. Ordering is to prioritize the activities to be carried out on a topic based on the location and implication of the matter.

(Author: Akira Yokoyama)

This essay is the English version of No. 58, September 3, 2019 on the Japanese website.

How to Resolve the Externalities of Policy

　Public policies implemented in a country or local government may have a negative effect on some people and populations, or may have a positive or negative effect on other public policies, or have a positive or negative effect on other countries or local governments. It can have a positive or negative effect on future generations that have not yet been born. These effects are termed “externalities of policy.”
　If there is a negative impact on some people or residents, it will be an applied problem of what was described in “one vote per person and one yen per vote” (essay no. 7). In addition, the reason why one public policy can have a positive or negative effect on another public policy is that there is a complementarity or competition between the policies, or there are commonalities or some relationship between the factors that cause the two policy issues. Examples of public policies that can have a positive or negative effect on other countries or local governments or future generations include policies such as global warming countermeasures and energy policies.

　Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels cause global warming and result in economic losses.

　Given the views of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global warming measures to reduce CO2 emissions in one country (local government) have a positive effect on other countries (local government) and future generations. This positive effect also includes the mutual impact of national and local governments. On the other hand, energy policies that result in increasing CO2 emissions have a negative effect.
　Regarding the externalities of policies between local governments (horizontal externalities) and the externalities of policies between the government and local governments in the country (vertical externalities), negotiations between the parties will be needed. The problem may be solved by the politics of the government, or by the courts of justice. On the other hand, regarding the externalities of policy between nations, that is, international ones, since there is no World Government, the problem may be solved through bilateral and multilateral negotiations (diplomatic negotiations). Alternatively, the problem may be solved by the International Court of Justice and other international courts as well as by the power of economic sanctions and military action.
　However, the problems related to the negative externalities of policy that impact on future generations cannot be negotiated between the current and future generations, and it is therefore necessary to consider how the current generation will solve them.

(Author: Akira Yokoyama)

This essay is the English version of No. 45, August 6, 2019 on the Japanese website.

A Green Person and a Blue Person

　In a graduate school called the “Graduate School of Policy Studies” which was first established in Japan more than 20 years ago, I once gave my students a report assignment titled “A Green Person and a Blue Person.” After that, I gave the same assignment to my students in undergraduate lectures in my faculty and in graduate lectures at a Graduate School of Policy Sciences in Kansai that had no faculty, and conveyed the true charm of comprehensive policy studies to the students. The report assignment was as follows.

　”In a certain society, a green person proposes that the members go to the right whereas a blue person suggests that they should go to the left, and then the society took the right path according to what the green person said. Next, enumerate the situations in which such a phenomenon might occur and consider the policy implications.”

　The contents of the reports of the students at that time, including graduate students, were extremely diverse, with various considerations added, and were very suggestive. I would like young readers, including middle and high school students, to think about the assignment by themselves first.
　The reason why this phenomenon occurs can be considered as follows: (1) Most of the members of the society were green people. (2) The green person was a legally authorized representative. (3) The green person was the supreme leader of the dominant religion. (4) The green person was considered beautiful from the aesthetic viewpoint of society. (5) The green person provided scientific evidence for the proposal. (6) In the light of past behavior, social confidence in the green person was higher than in the blue person. (7) The right path proposed by the green person gained more votes (the result of one vote per person). (8) The right path proposed by the green person had a greater net benefit to the society as a whole (the result of one yen and one vote). (9) The right path seemed to be easier to walk along than the left. (10) The green person’s speech was better than the blue person’s. And so on (including the overlapping of the above factors).
　Even if the blue person’s discourse was correct from a one-off scientific basis, when the blue person was thought of as a “wolf boy” based on past behavior, the scientific evidence alone would not be enough to cause the society to change. Furthermore, even if the blue person could say what is really correct, it is also true that the collective decision often depends on the feelings of those who just don’t want to accept anything the blue person says.
　From these above points, it seems necessary to consider the concept that “policy is a human matter.”

(Author: Akira Yokoyama)

This essay is the English version of No. 32, July 2, 2019 on the Japanese website.

Various Judgment Criteria

　The last essay (No. en3) described the policy evaluation of “one person one vote” and “one yen one vote”. At that time, I considered policy evaluation on an individual basis. Behind an individual’s policy evaluation is his or her own value judgment, but the judgment criteria are also diverse.
　Now suppose that you are a recruiter and face the following situation where you are going to hire one of two candidates, A and B. The scores on the common test for English, mathematics and Japanese (out of 100) are, in vector notation, A (100, 10, 40) and B (40, 50, 60). With this data alone, think about which candidate should be chosen.
　A simple average score is 50 for both A and B, with the following differences: B has a smaller variance of scores than A and more stable scores. Comparing the highest scores, A has the highest ability level because B scored 60 in Japanese against A, who achieved 100 in English. Comparing the lowest scores, B has a higher level than A in the worst case scenario because A obtained 10 in math against B, whose lowest score was 40 in English. Comparing the median scores, B has a higher level than A because B managed 50 in math against A, who scored 40 in Japanese. There are differences in the candidates to be adopted depending on the comparison criteria, that is, the judgment criteria such as comparing average scores, comparing variances, comparing the highest scores, comparing the lowest scores, comparing the median scores, and comparing them in combination.
　In addition, depending on what the recruiter expects from the candidate, for example, if you want a person with high English skills, you will ignore the ability of mathematics and Japanese, compare only the English scores, and hire A instead of B. To compare the superiority of the raw scores of A and B from among all participants in the common test, data such as the deviation value rather than the raw scores is needed. Needless to say, information other than common tests through resumes and interviews (as well as non-cognitive skills such as social activities, exercise capacity, communication skills, coordination, diligence, and perseverance, etc.) will also be considered when selecting candidates.
　When there are multiple recruiters, each recruiter will choose between candidates A and B based on their own criteria, and how the set of recruiters’ choices leads to the final decision of the candidate depends on the final decision rules.

(Author: Akira Yokoyama)

This essay is the English version of No. 20, June 4, 2019 on the Japanese website.